When will the market supply and demand become high?
2022-10-18
In terms of origin, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia after the festival was severe. In addition to the guaranteed supply, the turnover rate of surrounding local sales and long-distance truck transportation decreased significantly, and the synchronous transportation of Xinjiang coal was limited. At the same time, an important meeting was held. Some small and medium-sized mines in Yulin have suspended production, and the overall supply has decreased; In particular, the supply of coal in the market further contracted, and the market bullish sentiment was supported.
During the centralized maintenance of Datong Qinhuangdao Line, the efficiency of cargo gathering port decreased, and the function of the port reservoir was weak. During the first half of the centralized maintenance, the daily average traffic volume of Daqin Line remained at the level of 1 million tons. Since last Friday, affected by the epidemic situation in northern Shanxi, Hudong Locomotive Depot has experienced epidemic control. As we all know, the ten thousand ton and twenty thousand ton large trains pulled by the Harmony Unit are transported back and forth between the northern Shanxi and the Qinjing Cao Port Group, becoming the bridge link between the west coal to the east and the north coal to the south; However, the crew of Harmony was not enough, which caused difficulty in personnel allocation and decreased transportation efficiency. To this end, Taiyuan Bureau set up a crew reinforcement team and a locomotive repair team to rush to the front line. The day before yesterday, the Bohai Rim Port transferred 558000 tons of coal relying on the Datong Qinhuangdao Line and the Zhangjiakou Tangshan Line, a reduction of 57% compared with the normal transport volume; Among them, there are 12 trains on the large alignment, and only one train is loaded. It is also understood that it takes a long time to train an excellent driver, and drivers who support from other routes also need to be familiar with the road conditions and processes. At present, Shuo Huang Line and Zhang Tang Line, which are not troubled by maintenance and epidemic situation, are fully powered to speed up transportation. However, due to the great role of Daqin Line in the transportation of coal from the north to the south, the coal transported to the ports around Bohai Sea accounts for 50% of the total water coal in the ports around Bohai Sea; The decline in the traffic volume of this line has brought difficulties to the transportation of resources from the north of Shanxi Province, and has also affected the operation of the whole system of coal transportation from the north to the south.
At present, the epidemic situation in the production area has caused a lot of anxiety, which has had a great impact on coal transportation by vehicles, causing vehicles to be blocked from entering the mine. Affected by the epidemic situation and stricter safety supervision, some coal mines stopped exporting. The accident of the epidemic situation among train drivers caused a great headache for users who wanted to wait for bottom copying and make use of autumn to replenish the stock. However, from the current coal storage and consumption of key power plants nationwide and power plants in eight coastal provinces, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased significantly, and the available days of coal storage have increased; Most of the power plants had already raised their inventories to a high level by the end of September, but some small and medium-sized power plants wanted to wait for the coal price to fall, but this time it was a bit miscalculation, so they had to hurry up procurement, or it would be winter.
The epidemic situation is severe. In the short term, the circulation of goods in the main production areas, North Port, Second Port and other transit links is still limited; Before the end of the important meeting, both upstream and downstream high consumption production enterprises maintained a relatively low operating rate. It is expected that after the meeting, the favorable factors of large infrastructure and real estate will drive the industrial power load up; After the overhaul of superimposed Datong Qinhuangdao Railway, the new drivers have adapted to the operation process, and the transportation efficiency has been accelerated. The coal market will usher in a scene of high supply and demand.
This article is transferred from [Gaide Chemical Network], original text: http://news.china.guidechem.com/2022/10/18/511311.html
